Today: 5°C below average.

The rain however is really good for nature - because we haven't had much lately. It will continue to rain in the next 2 (perhaps 3-4) days until the weather starts stabilizing again. For the time being - this means a period with much lower than normal temperatures.

After that - it could start to get warmer - albeit not as 24°C summer warm as GFS just recently 'fantasized' *uhm* "calculated"... Instead it settles now with rather normal pre-summer temperatures around 16-19°C.

Well, well... even that can change, given the pretty bad "track record" of GFS (or any other).

Updated prognosis

A bit more optimistic

with higher temperatures - after the low pressure activity subsides over Stockholm - we could - in theory - get close to 20°C (give or take).

The scenario that is being filed on, calls for a high pressure area over Russia - as the continent warms up significantly. This warm air is partially pushing boundaries towards the west - and then it is thought (or "calculated"), that another high pressure area over Europe builds up, creating a warm bridge between the Russian and the Middle European High (and then taking over) in which the warm air can reside all the way up to Scandinavia, fending off the fronts high up in the north.

This would indeed lead in warmer weather.

The European ECMWF

isn't giving as much weight to the Russian High pressure area, and wouldn't influence our weather very much. That would mean (in my opinion) that we would remain in a rather unstable airmass with clouds for a week. Borderline weather, caught in between two sides.

However then a majestic high pressure area is expected to build up over Middle Europe would send a ridge high up into the North, covering entire Scandinavia with warmer air culminating during the Pentecost weekend (in Swedish "Pingst").

This High pressure area would then rotate and withdraw towards UK, leaving Scandinavia open to new cold air attacks from the NW and N.

Not really worth the words

Oh, but that is a far away in the prognosis... i should rather spare my words and say; take it with at least five grains of salt.

7° below normal

Today's MAX in Stockholm Snösätra, was 7° below normal average MAX temperatures.

Even more prognosis

Albeit from the ECMWF, European weather center - with a clear tendency towards summer. Well, in the end of the prognosis period, we are about to enter June. Summer isn't ruled out during from a time mid May and onwards - as it has happened many times before. By the way; the American GFS also shows similar outlook with significantly warmer weather.

It would be fun, with real summer weather. Weheee. Let's hope it develops towards really warmer weather.